August 17, 2003

The Philippine STAR, Opinion Page

Can We Survive Another Coup? 

By Babe Romualdez

Had lunch with Peter Wallace the other day, a well-known political and economic analyst who has been living in the country for over 30 years. He told me he is more concerned today than he ever was about the country’s future. Peter has published many of his views and analyses about the country’s political and economic situation from way back when, but for the first time, he is deeply worried. He told me that from 17 years ago, studies and analyses which he prepared are still applicable today – military unrest, corruption in the military and government, too much politics, uncontrolled population growth, weak educational system, too much judicial intervention in international contracts, among other things. This only tells us of where this country is today. Many agree that EDSA 1 was perhaps the only legitimate uprising because it had popular and worldwide support. The revolutionary government established by Mrs. Aquino brought about the restoration of the democratic system we have today. EDSA II, however, set back the democratic institutions on account of the extraordinary way the leadership was installed. That is why we have many “adventurers.” Certainly we cannot afford to have another coup attempt, much more another People Power. We have barely nine months to go before the 2004 elections, and the government must make sure this happens.

The investigations being done by the Senate and other government agencies on the young rebels are well and good, but it is also doing more harm because there are too many investigations going on at the same time. Perhaps the investigations by the Feliciano Commission should just be quietly done, and let the final results be the basis for other investigating bodies to work on. Too many investigations, too many political players, too many grandstanding only lead to more instability. The perception outside, as we have seen on CNN, is that there seems to be so many deep divisions in the country today. To top it all, we have the suspension of the Bangko Sentral governor (which caught everybody by surprise), which is potentially damaging to the already fragile economy – at least, this is what the Banker’s Association of the Philippines tells us. Aside from the effect this will have on investor confidence, there is also the recent ADB report, which is also very disturbing. That’s why the peso is back on a five-month low, making the economy just slightly better than that of Sri Lanka. Our sources in Washington tell us that the Pentagon is extremely concerned about the present situation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines because of the strategic link it plays on the anti-terrorism drive of the United States in this region. 

There’s no question that the young officers who initiated the mutiny should be punished, but the government should allow these young officers to say what they have to say. They are singing the tune that many believe to be true anyway. You can’t really call their outbursts as arrogant, but rather, more out of frustration. Added to this military unrest, there’s also the problem of thousands of OFWs that might be deported from Israel due to the country’s intensified campaign against foreign workers. If this pushes through, about 25,000 or so Filipinos are expected to lose their jobs. This will surely affect the influx dollar remittances, which has been keeping this country afloat. There’s also the issue of deficit in the budget. About 65-percent go to salaries and wages of government officials, 20-percent on debt service, and about 15-percent on basic services. There is also the ballooning foreign debt, which is more than 55 billion US dollars as of March 2003, according to the Bangko Sentral. All of these prove that the country is just as fragile today as 18 years ago. In that span of time, the Philippines has only posted an average of 3.1 percent GDP growth, which is just half the rate achieved by other Asian countries. Population growth posted an average of 2.5 percent, making it very difficult for the country to “spread the money” around. The IMF recently reported that the Philippines would most likely grow four-percent this year. But for the country to catch up with its neighbors, it should post more than seven percent GDP growth rate for the next 10 years on a sustained basis. The most this country has done was eight-percent, but it was only for one year. If present trends continue, it would take us another 30 years to catch up with Thailand and Malaysia.

What is really important for the short term is for the government to ensure the elections of 2004 will happen. Hopefully the country will have a good set of candidates to choose from. GMA already has the distinct advantage of being the only sitting president who is allowed by the Constitution to run next year. If people perceive her to have done well over the past two and a half years, then she might get elected, validating her claim to the presidency. Primarily, we must choose a president whom we believe will have the capacity to make drastic reforms and changes this country so badly needs. I am hoping there will be more qualified candidates than “personalities.” If we get another “personality” to sit as president and not qualified, this again will be the perfect formula for another coup. As it was relevant more than a century ago during the 1898 revolution, the words of one katipunero to his fellow revolutionaries in the midst of the Katipunan infighting are still applicable today when he said, “Kailangan tayong lahat ay magbago, kung hindi tayo rin ang talo!”

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